Bengaluru records 169% growth in sales in H1, 2022

Bengaluru, 13th July 2022: In H1 (Jan to June) 2022, Bengaluru residential market recorded the highest half-yearly sales since H1 2008. It recorded a sales growth of 169% in H1 2022 as compared to H1 2021. By comparison, in Q2 2022, however sales of residential apartment units witnessed a decline of 8% Q-o-Q as the new launches also came down by 28% in the quarter.

“The majority of the sales in Q2 2022 were recorded in Hosur Road, Whitefield, and Bellary Road. It is quite interesting to observe that majority of the sales in Bengaluru took place in apartments in the price bracket of INR 50 Lakh-INR 75 Lakh. The city has robust end-user demand and investor interest arising from its strong tech and start-up workforce which is driving the demand for quality apartment projects,” said Rahul Arora, MD (Karnataka & Kerala) and Head Office Leasing Advisory, India, JLL.

Note: Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis.

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Another 6,013 residential units in the plots and villa category were sold during Q2 2022 across the top seven cities. The majority of the traction was seen in the southern cities of Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad. Bengaluru had a share of 30% in the sales of plots and villa category as 1800 units were sold here in this segment in Q2 2022.

Strong recovery in sales in H1 2022 over H1 2021

Bengaluru’s share in H1 2022 sales was 22% with 23,452 units sold which is next only to Mumbai.

Note: Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis.

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Prices moving northward

The increase in input costs and the strong demand have caused an appreciation in residential prices with capital values showing a 3-7% Y-o-Y increase across all cities except Hyderabad which showed resilience by clocking double digit price growth over the same period. “Developers have partially passed on the input cost increases which are now reflected in the current residential prices. New launches also entered the market at higher prices. With interest rates in an upcycle, costs for owning a house are likely to increase further. This may cause some short-term deflation in demand but with changing dynamics around home ownership and with interest rates still on the lower side, residential demand is likely to remain on its growth trajectory. Bengaluru residential marked yearly growth in both sales and launches in Q2 2022. Moreover, In H1 2022, Bengaluru residential market recorded the highest half-yearly sales since H1 2008. Stable job market and a booming IT sector along with growth in start-ups is contributing to growth in residential sales in the city” said Dr. Samantak Das, Chief Economist, and Head Research & REIS, India, JLL.

New launches scale-up in India residential market showing 6% Q-o-Q growth in Q2 2022; Bengaluru witnesses moderation in quarterly launches

New launches of more than 63,000 units were recorded in Q2 2022, an increase of 6% Q-o-Q and 135% Y-O-Y. Mumbai dominated with a 27% share in the new launches followed by Hyderabad and Pune which contributed 25% and 21% respectively. Quarterly launches were higher on a Q-o-Q basis in Delhi NCR, Hyderabad, Mumbai, and Pune. It saw a declining quarterly trend in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Kolkata. However if we observe the Y-o-Y growth of launches, Bengaluru recorded a growth of 107% in Q2 2022.

New project launches expand in Q2 2022

Around 8,056 units were also launched across the top seven cities of India in the plots and villa segment in Q2 2022. These projects also recorded good responses from the buyers. 40% of the launches in the plots and villas segment were contributed by Bengaluru in the quarter.

Unsold inventory increases by 2.1% in Indian residential market;

Bengaluru witnesses a dip in unsold inventory

In Q2 2022, unsold inventory across the seven cities increased by 2.1% on a Q-o-Q basis as new launches outpaced sales. Mumbai, Delhi NCR, and Bengaluru together account for 60% of the unsold stock. An assessment of years to sell (YTS) shows that the expected time to liquidate the stock has declined from 4.2 years in Q1 2022 to 3.6 years in Q2 2022, an indication of robust sales growth.

In Q2 2022, Bengaluru witnessed a fall in unsold inventory as launches declined at a higher rate as compared to sales. It also brought down the YTS from 4 years in the previous quarter to 3.3 years in Q2 2022

Analyzing the sales performance as a proportion of total available inventory

Sales penetration -defined as % of apartments sold versus total available inventory is a marker of how markets actually performed on a normalized basis, accounting for varying levels of unsold inventory across all cities. Compared to this metric, the sales penetration for H1 2022 was at an average of 18% at a pan-India level. When looking at individual cities, sales penetration was highest in Pune (28%) with Bengaluru and Kolkata (21%) joint second. Both Pune and Kolkata are smaller markets in absolute sales terms of apartments, but they perform much better on a normalized comparison when sales penetration is considered. Rising inventory levels amid improving sales need to be looked at as well, when analyzing sales performance across cities. 

Outlook:

Developers have partially passed on the rising input cost to the buyers and also there has been an increase in interest rates. As a result, there may be some cooling down of sales in the short term. However, successful containment of the pandemic, improved buyer sentiments, and strong fundamentals of the residential market will lead to an upward trajectory in both launches and sales in the medium to long term. Only credible developers, who are customer-centric and possess proven execution capability, as well as quality products, will survive and emerge stronger.