Bengaluru and MMR propel Q1 2022 residential sales by 148% over pre-Covid levels: JLL

Mumbai, April 08, 2022: Led by Bengaluru and MMR, the residential apartment market in India recorded sales of close to 52,000 units in Q1, 2022 (Jan to March), an increase of 11% on a sequential basis. Sales for the quarter also surpassed the average quarterly sales for the pre-Covid 2018-19 period by a significant 148%, according to JLL’s Residential Market Update – Q1 2022.

Bengaluru contributed 24% of the sales activity during the quarter, followed by Mumbai with 22% and Delhi NCR accounting for 17%, while Pune represented 16% of overall sales. Sales in Q1 2022 scaled a new peak for the second straight quarter (since Q2 2013) as Bengaluru clocked the highest ever quarterly sales and MMR saw its sales stand at an 11-year high in the quarter.

The average ticket size of apartments going up

One of the most significant trends observed in the quarter is the rise in sales for bigger ticket sizes with apartments priced over INR 1 crore or higher recording an 83% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) growth in sales.

The INR 50 lakh – INR 1 crore price category still dominated with a 56% share of the quarterly sales in Q1 2022. In fact, most of the cities including Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Mumbai and, Pune recorded the majority of their sales in the INR 50 lakh to INR 75 lakh price bracket.

Kolkata continues to enjoy high affordability levels with the majority of the sales in the quarter being recorded in the sub-INR 50 lakh category. On the other hand, Delhi NCR saw maximum sales for apartments priced above INR 1.5 crore.

Sales of premium apartments on a rise

_{Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research}

Another 7,000 residential units in the plots and villa categories were sold during the quarter across the top seven cities. Maximum traction was seen in the southern cities of Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, where new launches by established developers met with a healthy buyer response.

“The impact of the omicron wave was quite limited and with lockdowns largely relaxed across the country, the market rode on the twin momentum of the ongoing low-interest rate regime and attractive pricing offered by developers. The changed perception around homeownership in a post-Covid world with the demand side incentives were key drivers towards sustaining the positive buyer sentiment across cities. As a result, we have witnessed residential sales up 83% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) in the first quarter of 2022 across the top seven cities. This marks the highest quarterly sales recorded since Q2 2013 and was the second successive peak after the previous high of around 46,000 units sold in Q4 2021,” said Siva Krishnan, Head - Residential, India, JLL.

_{Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai prime suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartment projects by private developers. Affordable housing projects sold under state schemes, Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis. Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research}

“With stamp duty waivers ending across most cities and many cities increasing ready reckoner/circle/guidance values, the impact will be felt by homebuyers. Developers are hard-pressed to pass on the rise in input costs to the buyers. Currently, input costs have risen by a factor of 8-10% over the past year. While the sales momentum needs to be maintained, the increase in project costs is weighing heavy on developers and some passing of these costs on to the buyers in the short to medium term looks very likely. This may cause some cooling down of sales in the short term but in the medium to long term, we remain bullish on residential sales volumes across the country,” said Dr. Samantak Das, Chief Economist, and Head Research & REIS, India, JLL.

New launches continue

The top seven cities under consideration witnessed new launches of 60,307 apartments in Q1 2022, an increase of 36% Q-o-Q. This marks the highest quarterly launches recorded since Q1 2014. Quarterly launches in Q1 2022 were higher on a q-o-q across all the major cities, except Delhi NCR and Kolkata.

New Launches show quarterly as well as yearly growth

_{Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai prime suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research}

Mumbai dominated new launches in Q1 2022, accounting for more than a 27% share. Bengaluru and Hyderabad followed with respective shares of 23% and 21% in the Q1 2022 launches.

The price category of over INR 1 crore contributed towards 44% of the new launches in Q1 2022. The share of this price category has increased from 36% in Q1 2021 to 44% in Q1 2022 backed by strong buyer demand. The average ticket size for new launches is going up as evidenced by the rise in apartment units available in the price category of over 1.5 crore with their share increasing from 11% in Q1 2021 to 22% in Q1 2022.

44% of the new launches in over INR 1 crore category

_{Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai
Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research}

Around 4700 units were also launched across top seven cities of India in the plots and villa segments in Q1 2022. These projects also recorded healthy traction from both end users and investors.

Unsold inventory increases by 2.5%

As new launches outpaced sales, unsold inventory across the seven cities increased by 2.5% on a q-o-q basis. Mumbai, Delhi NCR and Bengaluru together account for 66% of the unsold stock. An assessment of years to sell (YTS) shows that the expected time to liquidate the stock has declined marginally from 4.7 years in Q4 2021 to 4.3 years in Q1 2022, a clear indication of sales growth outpacing the growth in unsold inventory.

Prices increase marginally in select micro-markets

Residential prices have risen by an average of 2-4% q-o-q in Q1 2022 in select micro-markets across all the top seven cities. A strong demand momentum and the rise in input costs are key factors behind the price increase.

Outlook:

The increase in input costs and the sunset on waivers is likely to cause an upward pressure on prices. The effect on sales is likely to be only momentary with the bullish buyer sentiment expected to sustain the market momentum in the long term. Launches are likely to remain robust and the trend of launching plotted developments and independent floors is expected to grow with buyer preferences aligned towards such products. Developers also get the advantages of faster execution and quick inventory liquidation with such products.